Download Weekly Note - 16 February 2026
Local Market Update:
The JSE All Share index declined 1.33% to 120,584.07 points, while the Top 40 fell 1.45% to 112,558.10, led by a 2.42% drop in the Resources 10 index amid commodity pressure. Rate expectations remain supportive, with economists forecasting up to three additional 25bps SARB cuts to a 6% terminal rate, reinforcing a gradually easing monetary backdrop. Attention this week turns to key domestic data, including Q4 unemployment, January inflation and December retail sales, which will provide critical insight into demand resilience and the trajectory of policy easing.
European Market Update:
European equities closed marginally lower, with the STOXX 600 easing 0.13% to 617.7, as investors weighed AI-driven disruption risks against mixed earnings and macroeconomic signals. Labour market dynamics remain under scrutiny, particularly rising youth unemployment in the UK linked to higher minimum wages, though broader conditions remain stable. Policy support continues to underpin sentiment, with Ukraine advancing an $8.2 billion IMF programme, unlocking further international funding. Overall, markets are navigating a complex mix of structural shifts, uneven growth momentum and evolving policy support across the region.
US Market Update:
US equities delivered a mixed performance, with the S&P 500 marginally higher while the Nasdaq weakened amid ongoing concerns around AI-driven disruption in the technology sector. Softer-than-expected inflation data supported sentiment, lifting expectations for a potential June rate cut above 50%. However, strong labour market data tempered the pace of easing expectations, contributing to continued market volatility. Investors remain focused on capital expenditure trends and earnings durability, with upcoming GDP, PCE inflation and key corporate results expected to shape near-term market direction and rotation dynamics.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets consolidated recent gains in subdued trading conditions, while weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP data weighed on sentiment. The economy expanded at an annualised 0.2% in Q4, underscoring fragile domestic demand and limited recovery momentum. Policymakers face a challenging environment, balancing fiscal support initiatives with the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalisation. Persistent weakness across consumption, investment and export performance highlights structural constraints, raising questions around the sustainability of Japan’s recovery and broader regional growth dynamics in a tightening monetary environment.
Currency Market Update:
Currency markets remained driven by shifting interest rate expectations and global macro developments. The US dollar stabilised, with the dollar index holding near 96.959 following recent declines, as softer inflation data balanced against resilient labour market conditions. The Japanese yen weakened after recent gains as fiscal concerns eased, while broader market liquidity remained constrained due to regional holidays, amplifying volatility. Overall, currency movements continue to reflect central bank policy divergence, commodity price dynamics and evolving global risk sentiment in the near term.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets traded in a relatively narrow range, with oil prices supported by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, while expectations of OPEC+ supply increases from April capped upside. Ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran remains a key near-term driver of supply dynamics. Gold advanced 2.44%, reflecting sustained safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting interest rate expectations. Overall, commodities continue to balance supply-side policy signals with macroeconomic developments, reinforcing a range-bound but event-driven trading environment.