Download Weekly Note - 23 February 2026
Local Market Update:
South Africa’s macro backdrop shows tentative improvement, with unemployment declining to 31.4% in Q4, the lowest level in over five years, supported by gains in services, construction and finance. Diplomatic developments, including the arrival of a new U.S. ambassador, may support improved bilateral relations and investor sentiment. Business confidence moderated slightly, while attention turns to the national budget. In financials, Standard Bank’s R2 billion FLAC bond issuance strengthens capital resilience and reinforces systemic stability across the banking sector.
European Market Update:
European data points to gradual stabilisation, with eurozone industrial production rising 1.2% year-on-year. However, Germany continues to reflect a fragile recovery, with weaker investor sentiment and a 3.4% decline in January tax revenues highlighting fiscal pressures. In the UK, inflation eased to 3.0%, reinforcing expectations of a near-term Bank of England rate cut. Overall, the region remains characterised by uneven growth dynamics, with policy support continuing to underpin sentiment amid lingering structural challenges.
US Market Update:
U.S. macro conditions remain resilient, with economic data indicating stable growth and continued business investment. Softer inflation prints have increased expectations for policy easing, although Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, emphasising the need for sustained disinflation. Market dynamics were mixed, with Walmart under pressure following a cautious long-term outlook despite a significant buyback, while elevated valuations in AI-linked technology stocks continue to prompt investor scrutiny and episodic volatility.
Asia Market Update:
Asian markets remain broadly supported despite mixed underlying conditions, with improving manufacturing trends and resilient export demand underpinning sentiment. Capital flows into regional bonds extended for a fourth consecutive month, albeit at a slower pace. In Japan, manufacturing momentum strengthened, with PMI rising to multi-year highs, supported by domestic and external demand. Policy remains accommodative, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintaining rates, while Hong Kong’s unemployment edged higher, signalling modest labour market softening.
Currency Market Update:
The South African rand weakened against a firmer U.S. dollar as investors positioned ahead of key economic data. However, the dollar softened into the new week following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling against broad tariff measures, supporting global growth sentiment. Currency markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, while policy uncertainty continues to limit directional conviction and sustain elevated volatility across major and emerging market currencies.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets reflected divergent trends, with gold strengthening to a three-week high as tariff uncertainty and a softer U.S. dollar supported safe-haven demand. Oil prices advanced to six-month highs, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and tightening supply conditions. A significant drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, alongside constrained exports from key producers, reinforced the bullish oil backdrop, although volatility remains elevated amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.