Local Market Update:
South Africa faces ongoing economic challenges amid infrastructure constraints and fiscal pressures. A critical water shutdown disrupted Johannesburg’s supply, while the rand weakened against the US dollar amid global dollar strength. Inflation eased slightly, yet unemployment remains elevated at 34.4%. The mining sector struggles with operational setbacks, and energy supply issues persist with continued load shedding. Agricultural output declined due to adverse weather, though retail sales and tourism showed modest improvements. Rising government debt and persistent energy constraints highlight ongoing risks to growth and investor confidence in the near term.
European Market Update:
European markets experienced volatility amid a complex economic backdrop. Germany’s industrial output declined while the ECB signalled potential rate cuts to support growth amid subdued inflation. The UK saw easing inflation, though growth concerns linger. France’s unemployment fell to decade lows, while Spain achieved fiscal discipline, aligning with EU deficit targets. Italy’s tech sector and Dutch fintech innovations attracted investment, highlighting pockets of growth. The EU approved infrastructure projects aiming to modernise transport and energy, yet geopolitical tensions and climate-related financial losses pose ongoing risks to stability and investor sentiment.
US Market Update:
Inflation data aligned with expectations, supporting market speculation on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Market volatility increased as regulatory scrutiny intensified on major tech firms. The housing market cooled, and consumer confidence dipped, reflecting economic uncertainty. Institutional moves included the University of Chicago’s sale of CRSP amid financial pressure. Oil prices fluctuated on supply concerns. Fed officials debated monetary policy, balancing growth stimulus against inflationary risks. The retail sector faced challenges from evolving consumer behaviour and competition from e-commerce platforms.
Asia Market Update:
Asia saw a mixed economic picture with currencies broadly recovering following US inflation data. Japan faces a potential historic leadership change that could influence policy direction. Protests in Timor-Leste led to policy reversals, reflecting socio-political sensitivities. China’s economy showed stabilisation signs amid ongoing property sector worries. South Korea’s export growth slowed, while Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia reported positive developments in manufacturing, tourism, and infrastructure. Singapore’s financial regulators heightened scrutiny on digital assets. The region balances growth prospects with geopolitical and domestic uncertainties, influencing investment decisions across diverse markets.
Currency Market Update:
The US dollar strengthened following robust economic data and the Fed’s decision to hold rates. The Japanese yen rallied on Bank of Japan signals of potential tightening, pushing bond yields higher. Conversely, the euro weakened amid dovish ECB commentary, while the British pound fell on signs of economic slowdown and dovish Bank of England tones. The Australian dollar gained on increased risk appetite supported by positive economic indicators and commodity strength. Currency markets remain sensitive to central bank signals and geopolitical developments, requiring close monitoring for risk management and tactical positioning.
Commodity Market Update:
Commodity markets were volatile last week. Oil prices dropped as Kurdish crude exports resumed and OPEC+ planned output increases. Gold retreated from record highs amid profit-taking, while copper and cocoa softened due to inventory build-ups and weaker demand. Palm oil rebounded on stronger exports, and soybeans hit six-week lows amid subdued Chinese buying. Iron ore prices firmed amid rising steel output. Silver declined on dollar strength, while natural gas prices rose on supply concerns. Wheat eased following improved harvest forecasts. Overall, commodity price movements reflect a balance between supply dynamics and evolving global demand.